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Conclusions misleading in new IIHS report, AMA says |
Conclusions misleading in new IIHS report, AMA says
The American Motorcyclist Association has expressed serious reservations
about the
conclusions reached in a report of motorcycle fatalities released by the
Insurance
Institute for Highway Safety this week.
The IIHS report purports to show that sport-styled motorcycles are
considerably
more dangerous than other types of bikes. But an AMA analysis of the
report notes
that the methodology used in the research makes it difficult to
determine whether
that's a valid conclusion.
"The synopsis released by the IIHS claims that it has data showing a
much higher
fatality rate among so-called 'supersport' motorcycles," noted Ed
Moreland, AMA
Vice President for Government Relations. "But that is by no means clear,
based
on this report."
The IIHS report is not a new study. Instead, it's an analysis of
existing data from
the national Fatal Accident Reporting System. The methodology consists
of a comparison
of fatalities for different styles of motorcycles based on a rate per
10,000
registrations.
But that approach ignores a number of key factors, like the number of
miles the
bike was ridden, the traffic environment in which it was used, along
with the age
and experience of the rider, among others.
"Those factors are so significant that they could easily change the
results the
IIHS has reported," said Moreland. "For instance, the IIHS has made no
attempt to
determine whether bikes in its 'supersport' category are ridden more
miles than
bikes in the 'cruiser/standard' category. Nor has it attempted to
determine whether
they are used more often in urban areas that represent a more dangerous
environment
than the rural interstates where touring bikes are likely to be used."
When it comes to age and riding experience, the IIHS does indicate that
motorcycles
in its "supersport" category are ridden by the youngest riders,
averaging 27 years
of age. In fact, its rankings of the average ages of riders killed on
various styles
of bikes coincides closely with the fatality rate it reports on that
style of
motorcycle.
"In other words," said Moreland, "it's entirely possible this report
actually
demonstrates
that younger, less-experienced riders are more prone to crash than older
riders,
regardless of the type of bike they're riding. And that's true for all
types of
motor vehicles--cars, trucks or motorcycles."
Making any interpretation of the IIHS report even more difficult is the
classification
system the group used in dividing motorcycles. It includes some
unfamiliar categories,
like "unclad sport" motorcycles, and leaves out well-established
categories, like
the sport-touring class.
In an attempt to sort through this confusion, the AMA requested a copy
of the
classification
system the IIHS used in its analysis and found several significant
anomalies. For
instance, although the IIHS report focuses on speed and acceleration as
the factors
that make its "supersport" category so dangerous, the two most powerful
motorcycles
you can buy in the United States, Kawasaki's ZX-14 and Suzuki's Hayabusa,
are placed
in the Sport category, which is rated considerably less dangerous. And
they share
that category with Honda's ST1300 and Yamaha's FJR1300, two bikes that
define the
sport-touring class.
"No matter what name you put on it, the Hayabusa and the ST1300 are
simply not in
the same class of motorcycles," Moreland said. "And if you're claiming
to rank fatality
rates by category of motorcycle, it's hard to get meaningful results
when you lump
those very different machines together and declare them to be in the
same class."
The timing of the IIHS report is also unusual. Just this week, the
National
Transportation
Safety Board specifically asked the Federal Highway Administration to
work with
states to develop uniform data-collection procedures that will result in
better
information about the number of miles traveled by motorcycles, one of
the most
important
factors in evaluating crash statistics. As a result, this could be one
of the final
reports to use registration data exclusively, which is less accurate in
reflecting
actual motorcycle use.
This new IIHS report is remarkably similar to a study the group financed
20 years
ago that also purported to show higher fatality rates among sportbikes.
At that
time, the IIHS used its study as the springboard for a well-orchestrated
campaign
that included ready-made news footage it fed to TV news operations
across the country.
That campaign culminated in the introduction of a bill in the U.S.
Senate to impose
a horsepower limit on all motorcycles sold in the U.S.
The current IIHS research has plenty of echoes of that era in the late
1980s. In
fact, the final sentence of the IIHS "Status Report" on the subject,
published
Sept. 11, says, "Short of banning supersport and sport motorcycles from
public
roadways,
capping the speed of these street-legal racing machines at the factory
might be
one way to reduce their risk."
In response to that previous attempt by the IIHS to ban sportbikes, the
AMA conducted
an analysis of the study and raised questions that the Association
submitted to
Harry Hurt, lead researcher on the most comprehensive study of
motorcycle crashes
ever conducted. Hurt reviewed the research and declared it "fatally
flawed" for
exactly the kind of methodology problems seen in the new IIHS report.
The Association
then coordinated a campaign among motorcyclists across the country that
eventually
led the senator to withdraw his proposed legislation.
Ironically, the new IIHS report comes out just as the AMA and the
motorcycling
community
have been successful in getting federal funding for the first
comprehensive motorcycle
safety study since the Hurt Report all those years ago. And thanks to
funding from
the industry, through the Motorcycle Safety Council, along with the AMA
and individual
riders, that study will begin this fall.
"We look forward to getting the results of actual, in-the-field research
that won't
just compare fatalities to some hypothetical class of motorcycle, but
will pin down
the actual factors involved in motorcycle crashes," Moreland said. "That
will be
much more useful in helping save lives on the highway."
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